Inputs are what we control. 

These are the decisions that we make in any given scenario, the effort that we put in towards a goal, the practice that we undertake on a regular basis in preparation, the research that we do, the processes that we put in place to manage our tasks, and more.

Outputs are what we don't control.

These are being picked by someone for an award or a job or a promotion, reaching a goal that we set ourselves, putting on a show that delights the audience. 

The inputs can be favourable or unfavourable. And the outputs can be favourable or unfavourable. 

It is possible for unfavourable inputs to result in favourable outputs. Like someone just turning up unprepared for an exam and, through luck, facing only questions that they know answers to and scoring well. It is a wrong lesson to take that going preparing well is over-rated.

It is possible for favourable inputs to result in unfavourable outputs. Like someone who does everything right in a job interview, but ticks off the interviewer inadvertently for no fault of their own, and aren't selected for the job. It is a wrong lesson to take that no amount of preparation is good enough.

It is a lot more common for favourable inputs to result in favourable outputs and for unfavourable inputs to result in unfavourable outputs. 

It is easy to identify whether the output was favourable or not. But, when it comes to the inputs is when we over-estimate or under-estimate wildly and make an erroneous evaluation. 

Assess them with the same rigour.